Colorado Rapids II 6–4 Tacoma Defiance

Colorado Rapids II

FT

6 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Tacoma Defiance

7/21/2025

MLS Next Pro · Round 25CIBER Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Colorado Rapids II43%

×Draw22%

Tacoma Defiance35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colorado Rapids IIExpected goals in this matchTacoma Defiance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.64

Colorado Rapids II

1.85

Tacoma Defiance

1.64

Colorado Rapids II creates 13% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 51 away

1.75

creates per match

1.65

1.62

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Colorado Rapids II

1.75

Tacoma Defiance

1.65

allows per match

Colorado Rapids II

1.62

Tacoma Defiance

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colorado Rapids II+0.00on par

Tacoma Defiance+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Rapids II ↓

Tacoma Defiance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Colorado Rapids II or draw

65%

Colorado Rapids II or Tacoma Defiance

78%

Draw or Tacoma Defiance

57%

Winning margin

Colorado Rapids II wins by 2+

23%

Tacoma Defiance wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Colorado Rapids II 1+ goals

84%

Colorado Rapids II 2+ goals

55%

Colorado Rapids II 3+ goals

28%

Tacoma Defiance 1+ goals

81%

Tacoma Defiance 2+ goals

49%

Tacoma Defiance 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Colorado Rapids II (draw refunded)

55%

Tacoma Defiance (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Rapids II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.62 · 53 matches

Tacoma Defiance away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.96 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Rapids II attack 1.75 + Tacoma Defiance defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.85

Tacoma Defiance attack 1.65 + Colorado Rapids II defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Colorado Rapids II scores more

43%

level

22%

Tacoma Defiance scores more

35%

Colorado Rapids II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Colorado Rapids II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff