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Tacoma Defiance vs Austin II — MLS Next Pro 2026

Tacoma Defiance
Tacoma Defiance
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Austin II
Austin II
9/13/2025MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 35Starfire Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Tacoma Defiance50%
×Draw23%
Austin II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tacoma Defiance
1.85
Austin II
1.31

Tacoma Defiance creates 41% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 36 away

creates per match

Tacoma Defiance
2.52
Austin II
1.31

allows per match

Tacoma Defiance
1.31
Austin II
1.19

finishing

Tacoma Defiance+0.00on par
Austin II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacoma Defiance ↓

Austin II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Tacoma Defiance or draw
73%
Tacoma Defiance or Austin II
77%
Draw or Austin II
50%

Winning margin

Tacoma Defiance wins by 2+
28%
Austin II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tacoma Defiance 1+ goals
84%
Tacoma Defiance 2+ goals
55%
Tacoma Defiance 3+ goals
28%
Austin II 1+ goals
73%
Austin II 2+ goals
38%
Austin II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tacoma Defiance (draw refunded)
65%
Austin II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacoma Defiance at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.31 · 54 matches

Austin II away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacoma Defiance attack 2.52 + Austin II defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.85

Austin II attack 1.31 + Tacoma Defiance defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tacoma Defiance scores more
50%
level
23%
Austin II scores more
27%

Tacoma Defiance at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tacoma Defiance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tacoma Defiance vs Austin II

Austin II beat Tacoma Defiance 2-1 in MLS Next Pro on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Starfire Sports.