Austin II 3–0 Tacoma Defiance: Result & Stats

Austin II

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tacoma Defiance

5/11/2026

MLS Next Pro · Group StageParmer Filed

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Austin II51%

×Draw22%

Tacoma Defiance27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austin IIExpected goals in this matchTacoma Defiance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.44

Austin II

2.04

Tacoma Defiance

1.44

Austin II creates 42% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 51 away

2.11

creates per match

1.65

1.24

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Austin II

2.11

Tacoma Defiance

1.65

allows per match

Austin II

1.24

Tacoma Defiance

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austin II+0.00on par

Tacoma Defiance+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austin II ↓

Tacoma Defiance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Austin II or draw

73%

Austin II or Tacoma Defiance

78%

Draw or Tacoma Defiance

49%

Winning margin

Austin II wins by 2+

30%

Tacoma Defiance wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Austin II 1+ goals

87%

Austin II 2+ goals

60%

Austin II 3+ goals

33%

Tacoma Defiance 1+ goals

76%

Tacoma Defiance 2+ goals

42%

Tacoma Defiance 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Austin II (draw refunded)

65%

Tacoma Defiance (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austin II at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.24 · 37 matches

Tacoma Defiance away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.96 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austin II attack 2.11 + Tacoma Defiance defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.04

Tacoma Defiance attack 1.65 + Austin II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Austin II scores more

51%

level

22%

Tacoma Defiance scores more

27%

Austin II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Austin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff