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Täby vs Karlberg — Ettan - Norra 2019

Täby
Täby
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Karlberg
Karlberg
6/27/2024Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 15Tibblevallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Täby33%
×Draw23%
Karlberg44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Täby
1.46
Karlberg
1.71

Karlberg creates 17% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 37 away

creates per match

Täby
1.37
Karlberg
1.57

allows per match

Täby
1.85
Karlberg
1.54

finishing

Täby+0.00on par
Karlberg+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Täby ↓

Karlberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Täby or draw
56%
Täby or Karlberg
77%
Draw or Karlberg
67%

Winning margin

Täby wins by 2+
15%
Karlberg wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Täby 1+ goals
77%
Täby 2+ goals
43%
Täby 3+ goals
18%
Karlberg 1+ goals
82%
Karlberg 2+ goals
51%
Karlberg 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Täby (draw refunded)
43%
Karlberg (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Täby at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.85 · 75 matches

Karlberg away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.54 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Täby attack 1.37 + Karlberg defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

Karlberg attack 1.57 + Täby defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Täby scores more
33%
level
23%
Karlberg scores more
44%

Karlberg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Karlberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Norra: Täby 1–2 Karlberg

Karlberg beat Täby 2-1 in Ettan - Norra on June 27, 2024.

The match was played at Tibblevallen in Täby.