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Karlberg vs Täby — Svenska Cupen 2019

Karlberg
Karlberg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Täby
Täby
6/9/2021Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 1st RoundStadshagens IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Karlberg13%
×Draw19%
Täby68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlberg
0.80
Täby
2.13

Täby creates 166% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Karlberg
0.60
Täby
2.25

allows per match

Karlberg
2.00
Täby
1.00

finishing

Karlberg+0.00on par
Täby+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlberg ↓

Täby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Karlberg or draw
32%
Karlberg or Täby
81%
Draw or Täby
87%

Winning margin

Karlberg wins by 2+
4%
Täby wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Karlberg 1+ goals
55%
Karlberg 2+ goals
19%
Karlberg 3+ goals
5%
Täby 1+ goals
88%
Täby 2+ goals
63%
Täby 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Karlberg (draw refunded)
16%
Täby (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlberg at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Täby away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlberg attack 0.60 + Täby defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Täby attack 2.25 + Karlberg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Karlberg scores more
13%
level
19%
Täby scores more
68%

Täby at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Täby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Karlberg vs Täby

Täby beat Karlberg 1-0 in Svenska Cupen on June 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadshagens IP in Stockholm.