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Táborsko vs Vysočina Jihlava — FNL 2019

Táborsko
Táborsko
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vysočina Jihlava
Vysočina Jihlava
3/16/2024FNLFNL · Round 19Stadion Kvapilova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Táborsko49%
×Draw26%
Vysočina Jihlava25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Táborsko
1.52
Vysočina Jihlava
1.01

Táborsko creates 50% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 103 away

creates per match

Táborsko
1.36
Vysočina Jihlava
1.16

allows per match

Táborsko
0.86
Vysočina Jihlava
1.68

finishing

Táborsko+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Táborsko ↓

Vysočina Jihlava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Táborsko or draw
75%
Táborsko or Vysočina Jihlava
74%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava
51%

Winning margin

Táborsko wins by 2+
25%
Vysočina Jihlava wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Táborsko 1+ goals
78%
Táborsko 2+ goals
45%
Táborsko 3+ goals
20%
Vysočina Jihlava 1+ goals
64%
Vysočina Jihlava 2+ goals
27%
Vysočina Jihlava 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Táborsko (draw refunded)
66%
Vysočina Jihlava (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Táborsko at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.86 · 88 matches

Vysočina Jihlava away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.68 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Táborsko attack 1.36 + Vysočina Jihlava defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

Vysočina Jihlava attack 1.16 + Táborsko defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Táborsko scores more
49%
level
26%
Vysočina Jihlava scores more
25%

Táborsko at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Táborsko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Táborsko 2–1 Vysočina Jihlava

Táborsko beat Vysočina Jihlava 2-1 in FNL on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kvapilova in Tábor.