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Táborsko vs Písek — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Táborsko
Táborsko
FT
4 – 0
Písek
Písek
10/6/20193. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 9Stadion Kvapilova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Táborsko77%
×Draw13%
Písek10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Táborsko
3.09
Písek
1.04

Táborsko creates 197% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 84 away

creates per match

Táborsko
4.29
Písek
1.36

allows per match

Táborsko
0.71
Písek
1.90

finishing

Táborsko+0.00on par
Písek+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Táborsko ↓

Písek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Táborsko or draw
90%
Táborsko or Písek
87%
Draw or Písek
23%

Winning margin

Táborsko wins by 2+
58%
Písek wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Táborsko 1+ goals
95%
Táborsko 2+ goals
81%
Táborsko 3+ goals
58%
Písek 1+ goals
65%
Písek 2+ goals
28%
Písek 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Táborsko (draw refunded)
89%
Písek (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Táborsko at home — creates 4.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Písek away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.90 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Táborsko attack 4.29 + Písek defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 3.09

Písek attack 1.36 + Táborsko defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Táborsko scores more
77%
level
13%
Písek scores more
10%

Táborsko at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Táborsko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Táborsko 4–0 Písek

Táborsko beat Písek 4-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Kvapilova in Tábor.