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Písek vs Táborsko — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Písek
Písek
CANC
15:00
Táborsko
Táborsko
5/3/20203. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 24Městský sportovní areál

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Písek30%
×Draw26%
Táborsko45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Písek
1.17
Táborsko
1.49

Táborsko creates 27% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 6 away

creates per match

Písek
1.66
Táborsko
1.83

allows per match

Písek
1.15
Táborsko
0.67

finishing

Písek+0.00on par
Táborsko+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Písek ↓

Táborsko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Písek or draw
55%
Písek or Táborsko
74%
Draw or Táborsko
70%

Winning margin

Písek wins by 2+
12%
Táborsko wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Písek 1+ goals
69%
Písek 2+ goals
33%
Písek 3+ goals
11%
Táborsko 1+ goals
77%
Táborsko 2+ goals
44%
Táborsko 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Písek (draw refunded)
40%
Táborsko (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Písek at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.15 · 85 matches

Táborsko away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Písek attack 1.66 + Táborsko defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Táborsko attack 1.83 + Písek defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Písek scores more
30%
level
26%
Táborsko scores more
45%

Táborsko at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Táborsko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Písek vs Táborsko — Match Preview

Písek face Táborsko on May 3, 2020 in this 3. liga - CFL A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Písek host Táborsko at Městský sportovní areál.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.