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Táborsko II vs Povltava FA — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Táborsko II
Táborsko II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Povltava FA
Povltava FA
8/18/20243. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 2Stadion Svépomoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Táborsko II41%
×Draw23%
Povltava FA36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Táborsko II
1.74
Povltava FA
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 64 away

creates per match

Táborsko II
1.39
Povltava FA
1.58

allows per match

Táborsko II
1.65
Povltava FA
2.09

finishing

Táborsko II+0.00on par
Povltava FA+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Táborsko II ↓

Povltava FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Táborsko II or draw
64%
Táborsko II or Povltava FA
77%
Draw or Povltava FA
59%

Winning margin

Táborsko II wins by 2+
21%
Povltava FA wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Táborsko II 1+ goals
82%
Táborsko II 2+ goals
52%
Táborsko II 3+ goals
25%
Povltava FA 1+ goals
80%
Povltava FA 2+ goals
48%
Povltava FA 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Táborsko II (draw refunded)
53%
Povltava FA (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Táborsko II at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.65 · 46 matches

Povltava FA away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.09 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Táborsko II attack 1.39 + Povltava FA defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.74

Povltava FA attack 1.58 + Táborsko II defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Táborsko II scores more
41%
level
23%
Povltava FA scores more
36%

Táborsko II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Táborsko II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Táborsko II 2–0 Povltava FA

Táborsko II beat Povltava FA 2-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on August 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Svépomoc in Tábor.