Povltava FA 2–4 Táborsko II: Result & Stats

Povltava FA

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Táborsko II

3/10/2024

3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 17Stadion Štěchovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Povltava FA48%

×Draw23%

Táborsko II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Povltava FAExpected goals in this matchTáborsko II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.35

Povltava FA

1.79

Táborsko II

1.35

Povltava FA creates 33% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 46 away

1.44

creates per match

1.22

1.48

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Povltava FA

1.44

Táborsko II

1.22

allows per match

Povltava FA

1.48

Táborsko II

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Povltava FA+0.00on par

Táborsko II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Povltava FA ↓

Táborsko II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Povltava FA or draw

71%

Povltava FA or Táborsko II

77%

Draw or Táborsko II

52%

Winning margin

Povltava FA wins by 2+

26%

Táborsko II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Povltava FA 1+ goals

83%

Povltava FA 2+ goals

53%

Povltava FA 3+ goals

26%

Táborsko II 1+ goals

74%

Táborsko II 2+ goals

39%

Táborsko II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Povltava FA (draw refunded)

62%

Táborsko II (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Povltava FA at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.48 · 62 matches

Táborsko II away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.15 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Povltava FA attack 1.44 + Táborsko II defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.79

Táborsko II attack 1.22 + Povltava FA defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Povltava FA scores more

48%

level

23%

Táborsko II scores more

29%

Povltava FA at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Povltava FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff