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Tabora United vs Mashujaa — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Tabora United
Tabora United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mashujaa
Mashujaa
M. Chukwu 8'
11/4/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 11Ali Hassan Mwinyi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tabora United49%
×Draw30%
Mashujaa21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tabora United
1.25
Mashujaa
0.70

Tabora United creates 79% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 32 away

creates per match

Tabora United
1.20
Mashujaa
0.59

allows per match

Tabora United
0.80
Mashujaa
1.31

finishing

Tabora United+0.00on par
Mashujaa+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tabora United ↓

Mashujaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tabora United or draw
79%
Tabora United or Mashujaa
70%
Draw or Mashujaa
51%

Winning margin

Tabora United wins by 2+
23%
Mashujaa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tabora United 1+ goals
71%
Tabora United 2+ goals
36%
Tabora United 3+ goals
13%
Mashujaa 1+ goals
50%
Mashujaa 2+ goals
16%
Mashujaa 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Tabora United (draw refunded)
70%
Mashujaa (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tabora United at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Mashujaa away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tabora United attack 1.20 + Mashujaa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mashujaa attack 0.59 + Tabora United defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tabora United scores more
49%
level
30%
Mashujaa scores more
21%

Tabora United at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tabora United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
M. Chukwu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tabora United vs Mashujaa

Tabora United beat Mashujaa 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on November 4, 2024.

Goals: M. Chukwu (8').

The match was played at Ali Hassan Mwinyi Stadium in Tabora.