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Mashujaa vs Tabora United — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Mashujaa
Mashujaa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tabora United
Tabora United
D. Richard 88'
J. Kibaya 45+3'
M. Vuai 9'
4/10/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 26Lake Tanganyika Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mashujaa50%
×Draw29%
Tabora United21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mashujaa
1.28
Tabora United
0.72

Mashujaa creates 78% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 30 away

creates per match

Mashujaa
0.94
Tabora United
0.83

allows per match

Mashujaa
0.62
Tabora United
1.63

finishing

Mashujaa+0.00on par
Tabora United+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mashujaa ↓

Tabora United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mashujaa or draw
79%
Mashujaa or Tabora United
71%
Draw or Tabora United
50%

Winning margin

Mashujaa wins by 2+
23%
Tabora United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mashujaa 1+ goals
72%
Mashujaa 2+ goals
37%
Mashujaa 3+ goals
14%
Tabora United 1+ goals
51%
Tabora United 2+ goals
16%
Tabora United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mashujaa (draw refunded)
70%
Tabora United (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mashujaa at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.62 · 34 matches

Tabora United away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mashujaa attack 0.94 + Tabora United defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.28

Tabora United attack 0.83 + Mashujaa defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mashujaa scores more
50%
level
29%
Tabora United scores more
21%

Mashujaa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mashujaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
M. Vuai
45+3'
J. Kibaya
88'
D. Richard

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mashujaa vs Tabora United

Mashujaa beat Tabora United 3-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on April 10, 2025.

Goals: M. Vuai (9'), J. Kibaya (45+3'), D. Richard (88').

The match was played at Lake Tanganyika Stadium in Kigoma.