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Tabora United vs KMC — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Tabora United
Tabora United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
KMC
KMC
D. Kulwa 59'
5/14/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 28Ali Hassan Mwinyi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Tabora United60%
×Draw25%
KMC15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tabora United
1.61
KMC
0.67

Tabora United creates 140% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

creates per match

Tabora United
1.27
KMC
0.52

allows per match

Tabora United
0.82
KMC
1.96

finishing

Tabora United+0.00on par
KMC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tabora United ↓

KMC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tabora United or draw
85%
Tabora United or KMC
75%
Draw or KMC
40%

Winning margin

Tabora United wins by 2+
33%
KMC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Tabora United 1+ goals
80%
Tabora United 2+ goals
48%
Tabora United 3+ goals
22%
KMC 1+ goals
49%
KMC 2+ goals
15%
KMC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Tabora United (draw refunded)
80%
KMC (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tabora United at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.82 · 22 matches

KMC away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tabora United attack 1.27 + KMC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.61

KMC attack 0.52 + Tabora United defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Tabora United scores more
60%
level
25%
KMC scores more
15%

Tabora United at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Tabora United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'
D. Kulwa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Tabora United 0–1 KMC

KMC beat Tabora United 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on May 14, 2025.

Goals: D. Kulwa (59').

The match was played at Ali Hassan Mwinyi Stadium in Tabora.