KMC 0–2 Tabora United: Result & Stats

KMC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tabora United

O. Chikola 57'

Y. Songne 41'

11/29/2024

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 13KMC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

KMC31%

×Draw28%

Tabora United41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KMCExpected goals in this matchTabora United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.25

KMC

1.06

Tabora United

1.25

Tabora United creates 18% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 22 away

0.75

creates per match

1.00

1.50

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

KMC

0.75

Tabora United

1.00

allows per match

KMC

1.50

Tabora United

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KMC+0.00on par

Tabora United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KMC ↓

Tabora United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

KMC or draw

59%

KMC or Tabora United

72%

Draw or Tabora United

69%

Winning margin

KMC wins by 2+

12%

Tabora United wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

KMC 1+ goals

65%

KMC 2+ goals

29%

KMC 3+ goals

9%

Tabora United 1+ goals

71%

Tabora United 2+ goals

36%

Tabora United 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

KMC (draw refunded)

44%

Tabora United (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KMC at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 24 matches

Tabora United away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KMC attack 0.75 + Tabora United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.06

Tabora United attack 1.00 + KMC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

KMC scores more

31%

level

28%

Tabora United scores more

41%

Tabora United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tabora United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

Y. Songne↳ H. Makambo

57'

O. Chikola

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff