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Tabora United vs Coastal Union — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Tabora United
Tabora United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Coastal Union
Coastal Union
A. Bikoko 3'
3/3/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 19Ali Hassan Mwinyi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Tabora United48%
×Draw29%
Coastal Union23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tabora United
1.27
Coastal Union
0.79

Tabora United creates 61% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 25 away

creates per match

Tabora United
1.27
Coastal Union
0.76

allows per match

Tabora United
0.82
Coastal Union
1.28

finishing

Tabora United+0.00on par
Coastal Union+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tabora United ↓

Coastal Union →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tabora United or draw
77%
Tabora United or Coastal Union
71%
Draw or Coastal Union
52%

Winning margin

Tabora United wins by 2+
22%
Coastal Union wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tabora United 1+ goals
72%
Tabora United 2+ goals
36%
Tabora United 3+ goals
14%
Coastal Union 1+ goals
55%
Coastal Union 2+ goals
19%
Coastal Union 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tabora United (draw refunded)
67%
Coastal Union (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tabora United at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.82 · 22 matches

Coastal Union away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tabora United attack 1.27 + Coastal Union defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Coastal Union attack 0.76 + Tabora United defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tabora United scores more
48%
level
29%
Coastal Union scores more
23%

Tabora United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tabora United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
A. Bikoko

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tabora United vs Coastal Union

Tabora United beat Coastal Union 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on March 3, 2024.

Goals: A. Bikoko (3').

The match was played at Ali Hassan Mwinyi Stadium in Tabora.