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Coastal Union vs Tabora United — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Coastal Union
Coastal Union
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tabora United
Tabora United
Unknown 90+1'
Unknown 54'
6/22/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 30Mkwakwani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Coastal Union35%
×Draw32%
Tabora United33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coastal Union
0.97
Tabora United
0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Coastal Union
0.82
Tabora United
0.88

allows per match

Coastal Union
1.00
Tabora United
1.13

finishing

Coastal Union+0.00on par
Tabora United+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coastal Union ↓

Tabora United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Coastal Union or draw
67%
Coastal Union or Tabora United
68%
Draw or Tabora United
65%

Winning margin

Coastal Union wins by 2+
13%
Tabora United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Coastal Union 1+ goals
62%
Coastal Union 2+ goals
25%
Coastal Union 3+ goals
7%
Tabora United 1+ goals
61%
Tabora United 2+ goals
24%
Tabora United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Coastal Union (draw refunded)
51%
Tabora United (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coastal Union at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Tabora United away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coastal Union attack 0.82 + Tabora United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.97

Tabora United attack 0.88 + Coastal Union defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Coastal Union scores more
35%
level
32%
Tabora United scores more
33%

Coastal Union at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Coastal Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coastal Union vs Tabora United

Coastal Union and Tabora United drew 1-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on June 22, 2025.

Goals: ? (54', 90+1').

The match was played at Mkwakwani Stadium in Tanga.