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Tabora United vs Azam — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Tabora United
Tabora United
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Azam
Azam
2/19/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 16Ali Hassan Mwinyi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tabora United31%
×Draw31%
Azam38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tabora United
0.94
Azam
1.06

Azam creates 13% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

creates per match

Tabora United
1.20
Azam
1.32

allows per match

Tabora United
0.80
Azam
0.68

finishing

Tabora United+0.00on par
Azam+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tabora United ↓

Azam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tabora United or draw
62%
Tabora United or Azam
69%
Draw or Azam
69%

Winning margin

Tabora United wins by 2+
11%
Azam wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tabora United 1+ goals
61%
Tabora United 2+ goals
24%
Tabora United 3+ goals
7%
Azam 1+ goals
65%
Azam 2+ goals
29%
Azam 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tabora United (draw refunded)
45%
Azam (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tabora United at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Azam away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tabora United attack 1.20 + Azam defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.94

Azam attack 1.32 + Tabora United defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tabora United scores more
31%
level
31%
Azam scores more
38%

Azam at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Azam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Tabora United 0–0 Azam

Tabora United and Azam drew 0-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on February 19, 2024.

The match was played at Ali Hassan Mwinyi Stadium in Tabora.