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Azam vs Tabora United — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Azam
Azam
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tabora United
Tabora United
1/29/2026Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 6Azam Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Azam66%
×Draw22%
Tabora United12%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azam
1.79
Tabora United
0.59

Azam creates 203% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 26 away

creates per match

Azam
1.96
Tabora United
0.96

allows per match

Azam
0.22
Tabora United
1.62

finishing

Azam+0.00on par
Tabora United+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azam ↓

Tabora United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Azam or draw
88%
Azam or Tabora United
78%
Draw or Tabora United
34%

Winning margin

Azam wins by 2+
39%
Tabora United wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Azam 1+ goals
83%
Azam 2+ goals
53%
Azam 3+ goals
26%
Tabora United 1+ goals
45%
Tabora United 2+ goals
12%
Tabora United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Azam (draw refunded)
85%
Tabora United (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azam at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.22 · 27 matches

Tabora United away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azam attack 1.96 + Tabora United defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.79

Tabora United attack 0.96 + Azam defence 0.22 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Azam scores more
66%
level
22%
Tabora United scores more
12%

Azam at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Azam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Azam 2–0 Tabora United

Azam beat Tabora United 2-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on January 29, 2026.

The match was played at Azam Complex Stadium in Dar es Salaam.