Tabor Sežana 3–1 Dekani: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Tabor Sežana

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Dekani

K. Bafounta 63'

S. Petkov 42'

Mauro Bandeira 13'

M. Burin 49' (pen)

11/23/2024

2. SNL · Round 16Stadion Rajko Štolfa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Tabor Sežana48%

×Draw25%

Dekani27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tabor SežanaExpected goals in this matchDekani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.10

Tabor Sežana

1.57

Dekani

1.10

Tabor Sežana creates 43% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 96 away

1.48

creates per match

0.93

1.27

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Tabor Sežana

1.48

Dekani

0.93

allows per match

Tabor Sežana

1.27

Dekani

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tabor Sežana+0.00on par

Dekani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tabor Sežana ↓

Dekani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tabor Sežana or draw

73%

Tabor Sežana or Dekani

75%

Draw or Dekani

52%

Winning margin

Tabor Sežana wins by 2+

25%

Dekani wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tabor Sežana 1+ goals

79%

Tabor Sežana 2+ goals

46%

Tabor Sežana 3+ goals

21%

Dekani 1+ goals

67%

Dekani 2+ goals

30%

Dekani 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tabor Sežana (draw refunded)

64%

Dekani (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tabor Sežana at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.27 · 48 matches

Dekani away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.66 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tabor Sežana attack 1.48 + Dekani defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.57

Dekani attack 0.93 + Tabor Sežana defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tabor Sežana scores more

48%

level

25%

Dekani scores more

27%

Tabor Sežana at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tabor Sežana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Mauro Bandeira

42'

S. Petkov

46'

P. Nwachukwu← J. Zupan

49'

M. BurinPenalty

60'

N. Zlatev← T. Maloku

63'

K. Bafounta

68'

D. Hoti← M. Burin

68'

T. Zonta← B. Petriško

73'

A. Šćulac← R. Stojanović

79'

V. Štefanec← K. Todorov

84'

M. Florenin Klavora← L. Kerin

87'

M. Aščić Pijaža← D. Stančič

Tabor

Dekani

▼

Petriško

Gabrić

Cerovec

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: N. Kosmač

60'▲N. Zlatev←▼T. Maloku

79'▲V. Štefanec←▼K. Todorov

87'▲M. Aščić Pijaža←▼D. Stančič

Tabor Sežana substitutes

ZlatevŠtefanecPijažaJakupovićMedićPavlovićFernettiFortunaRupnik

Manager: A. Ščulac

46'▲P. Nwachukwu←▼J. Zupan

68'▲D. Hoti←▼M. Burin

68'▲T. Zonta←▼B. Petriško

73'▲A. Šćulac←▼R. Stojanović

84'▲M. Florenin Klavora←▼L. Kerin

Dekani substitutes

NwachukwuHotiZontaŠćulacKlavoraDalipiBliznacKodarinMarinković