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Dekani vs Tabor Sežana — 2. SNL 2019

Dekani
Dekani
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Tabor Sežana
Tabor Sežana
L. Sever 50'
F. Rose 48'
K. Carole 37'
9/13/20252. SNL2. SNL · Round 6Igrišce Ivan Gregoric

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Dekani39%
×Draw26%
Tabor Sežana36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dekani
1.41
Tabor Sežana
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 48 away

creates per match

Dekani
1.36
Tabor Sežana
1.42

allows per match

Dekani
1.28
Tabor Sežana
1.46

finishing

Dekani+0.00on par
Tabor Sežana+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dekani ↓

Tabor Sežana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dekani or draw
64%
Dekani or Tabor Sežana
74%
Draw or Tabor Sežana
61%

Winning margin

Dekani wins by 2+
18%
Tabor Sežana wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dekani 1+ goals
76%
Dekani 2+ goals
41%
Dekani 3+ goals
17%
Tabor Sežana 1+ goals
74%
Tabor Sežana 2+ goals
39%
Tabor Sežana 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Dekani (draw refunded)
52%
Tabor Sežana (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dekani at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

Tabor Sežana away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.46 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dekani attack 1.36 + Tabor Sežana defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.41

Tabor Sežana attack 1.42 + Dekani defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dekani scores more
39%
level
26%
Tabor Sežana scores more
36%

Dekani at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dekani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
K. Carole
48'
F. Rose
50'
L. Sever
Dekani
Tabor
Alen Sculac
Manager: Alen Sculac
N. Kosmač
Manager: N. Kosmač

Match Recap: Dekani vs Tabor Sežana

Tabor Sežana beat Dekani 3-0 in 2. SNL on September 13, 2025.

Goals: K. Carole (37'), F. Rose (48'), L. Sever (50').

The match was played at Igrišce Ivan Gregoric in Dekani.