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Szolnoki MAV FC vs Martfűi LSE — NB III - Southeast 2023

Szolnoki MAV FC
Szolnoki MAV FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Martfűi LSE
Martfűi LSE
8/2/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 2Tiszaligeti Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Szolnoki MAV FC54%
×Draw22%
Martfűi LSE24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Szolnoki MAV FC
1.99
Martfűi LSE
1.25

Szolnoki MAV FC creates 59% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Szolnoki MAV FC
1.80
Martfűi LSE
1.07

allows per match

Szolnoki MAV FC
1.43
Martfűi LSE
2.18

finishing

Szolnoki MAV FC+0.00on par
Martfűi LSE+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szolnoki MAV FC ↓

Martfűi LSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Szolnoki MAV FC or draw
76%
Szolnoki MAV FC or Martfűi LSE
78%
Draw or Martfűi LSE
46%

Winning margin

Szolnoki MAV FC wins by 2+
32%
Martfűi LSE wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Szolnoki MAV FC 1+ goals
86%
Szolnoki MAV FC 2+ goals
59%
Szolnoki MAV FC 3+ goals
32%
Martfűi LSE 1+ goals
71%
Martfűi LSE 2+ goals
36%
Martfűi LSE 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Szolnoki MAV FC (draw refunded)
70%
Martfűi LSE (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szolnoki MAV FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

Martfűi LSE away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szolnoki MAV FC attack 1.80 + Martfűi LSE defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.99

Martfűi LSE attack 1.07 + Szolnoki MAV FC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Szolnoki MAV FC scores more
54%
level
22%
Martfűi LSE scores more
24%

Szolnoki MAV FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Szolnoki MAV FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Szolnoki MAV FC 1–1 Martfűi LSE

Szolnoki MAV FC and Martfűi LSE drew 1-1 in NB III - Southeast on August 2, 2023.

The match was played at Tiszaligeti Stadion in Szolnok.