Martfűi LSE 4–1 Szolnoki MAV FC: Result & Stats

Martfűi LSE

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Szolnoki MAV FC

7/28/2024

NB III - Southeast · Southeast - 1Martfű LSE Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Martfűi LSE45%

×Draw23%

Szolnoki MAV FC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Martfűi LSEExpected goals in this matchSzolnoki MAV FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.53

Martfűi LSE

1.82

Szolnoki MAV FC

1.53

Martfűi LSE creates 19% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 30 away

1.34

creates per match

0.83

2.23

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Martfűi LSE

1.34

Szolnoki MAV FC

0.83

allows per match

Martfűi LSE

2.23

Szolnoki MAV FC

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Martfűi LSE+0.00on par

Szolnoki MAV FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Martfűi LSE ↓

Szolnoki MAV FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Martfűi LSE or draw

67%

Martfűi LSE or Szolnoki MAV FC

77%

Draw or Szolnoki MAV FC

55%

Winning margin

Martfűi LSE wins by 2+

24%

Szolnoki MAV FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Martfűi LSE 1+ goals

84%

Martfűi LSE 2+ goals

54%

Martfűi LSE 3+ goals

27%

Szolnoki MAV FC 1+ goals

78%

Szolnoki MAV FC 2+ goals

45%

Szolnoki MAV FC 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Martfűi LSE (draw refunded)

58%

Szolnoki MAV FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Martfűi LSE at home — creates 1.34, concedes 2.23 · 44 matches

Szolnoki MAV FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Martfűi LSE attack 1.34 + Szolnoki MAV FC defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.82

Szolnoki MAV FC attack 0.83 + Martfűi LSE defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Martfűi LSE scores more

45%

level

23%

Szolnoki MAV FC scores more

33%

Martfűi LSE at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Martfűi LSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff