Szolnoki MAV FC 0–1 Honvéd II: Result & Stats

Szolnoki MAV FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Honvéd II

3/12/2023

NB III - Northwest · Közép - 25Tiszaligeti Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Szolnoki MAV FC33%

×Draw23%

Honvéd II44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Szolnoki MAV FCExpected goals in this matchHonvéd II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.72

Szolnoki MAV FC

1.46

Honvéd II

1.72

Honvéd II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 64 away

1.72

creates per match

1.83

1.61

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Szolnoki MAV FC

1.72

Honvéd II

1.83

allows per match

Szolnoki MAV FC

1.61

Honvéd II

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Szolnoki MAV FC+0.00on par

Honvéd II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szolnoki MAV FC ↓

Honvéd II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Szolnoki MAV FC or draw

56%

Szolnoki MAV FC or Honvéd II

77%

Draw or Honvéd II

67%

Winning margin

Szolnoki MAV FC wins by 2+

15%

Honvéd II wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Szolnoki MAV FC 1+ goals

77%

Szolnoki MAV FC 2+ goals

43%

Szolnoki MAV FC 3+ goals

18%

Honvéd II 1+ goals

82%

Honvéd II 2+ goals

51%

Honvéd II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Szolnoki MAV FC (draw refunded)

43%

Honvéd II (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szolnoki MAV FC at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

Honvéd II away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.20 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szolnoki MAV FC attack 1.72 + Honvéd II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.46

Honvéd II attack 1.83 + Szolnoki MAV FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Szolnoki MAV FC scores more

33%

level

23%

Honvéd II scores more

44%

Honvéd II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Honvéd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff