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Honvéd II vs Szolnoki MAV FC — NB III - Southeast 2023

Honvéd II
Honvéd II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Szolnoki MAV FC
Szolnoki MAV FC
8/19/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 4Honvéd MFA Utánpótlás Központ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Honvéd II59%
×Draw21%
Szolnoki MAV FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Honvéd II
2.04
Szolnoki MAV FC
1.08

Honvéd II creates 89% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Honvéd II
1.78
Szolnoki MAV FC
0.83

allows per match

Honvéd II
1.33
Szolnoki MAV FC
2.30

finishing

Honvéd II+0.00on par
Szolnoki MAV FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honvéd II ↓

Szolnoki MAV FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Honvéd II or draw
80%
Honvéd II or Szolnoki MAV FC
79%
Draw or Szolnoki MAV FC
41%

Winning margin

Honvéd II wins by 2+
36%
Szolnoki MAV FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Honvéd II 1+ goals
87%
Honvéd II 2+ goals
60%
Honvéd II 3+ goals
33%
Szolnoki MAV FC 1+ goals
66%
Szolnoki MAV FC 2+ goals
29%
Szolnoki MAV FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Honvéd II (draw refunded)
75%
Szolnoki MAV FC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honvéd II at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

Szolnoki MAV FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honvéd II attack 1.78 + Szolnoki MAV FC defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.04

Szolnoki MAV FC attack 0.83 + Honvéd II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Honvéd II scores more
59%
level
21%
Szolnoki MAV FC scores more
20%

Honvéd II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Honvéd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Honvéd II 1–1 Szolnoki MAV FC

Honvéd II and Szolnoki MAV FC drew 1-1 in NB III - Southeast on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Honvéd MFA Utánpótlás Központ in Budapest.