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Szolnoki MAV FC vs Dabas — NB III - Northwest 2019

Szolnoki MAV FC
Szolnoki MAV FC
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Dabas
Dabas
4/23/2023NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Közép - 33Tiszaligeti Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Szolnoki MAV FC43%
×Draw25%
Dabas32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Szolnoki MAV FC
1.58
Dabas
1.33

Szolnoki MAV FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 64 away

creates per match

Szolnoki MAV FC
1.72
Dabas
1.06

allows per match

Szolnoki MAV FC
1.61
Dabas
1.45

finishing

Szolnoki MAV FC+0.00on par
Dabas+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szolnoki MAV FC ↓

Dabas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Szolnoki MAV FC or draw
68%
Szolnoki MAV FC or Dabas
75%
Draw or Dabas
57%

Winning margin

Szolnoki MAV FC wins by 2+
22%
Dabas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Szolnoki MAV FC 1+ goals
79%
Szolnoki MAV FC 2+ goals
47%
Szolnoki MAV FC 3+ goals
21%
Dabas 1+ goals
74%
Dabas 2+ goals
38%
Dabas 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Szolnoki MAV FC (draw refunded)
57%
Dabas (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szolnoki MAV FC at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

Dabas away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.45 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szolnoki MAV FC attack 1.72 + Dabas defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.58

Dabas attack 1.06 + Szolnoki MAV FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Szolnoki MAV FC scores more
43%
level
25%
Dabas scores more
32%

Szolnoki MAV FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Szolnoki MAV FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Szolnoki MAV FC vs Dabas

Szolnoki MAV FC beat Dabas 4-0 in NB III - Northwest on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Tiszaligeti Stadion in Szolnok.