Dabas 0–1 Szolnoki MAV FC: Result & Stats

Dabas

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Szolnoki MAV FC

10/6/2024

NB III - Southeast · Southeast - 10FC Dabas Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dabas49%

×Draw24%

Szolnoki MAV FC28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DabasExpected goals in this matchSzolnoki MAV FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.26

Dabas

1.74

Szolnoki MAV FC

1.26

Dabas creates 38% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

1.18

creates per match

0.83

1.69

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Dabas

1.18

Szolnoki MAV FC

0.83

allows per match

Dabas

1.69

Szolnoki MAV FC

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dabas+0.00on par

Szolnoki MAV FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dabas ↓

Szolnoki MAV FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dabas or draw

72%

Dabas or Szolnoki MAV FC

76%

Draw or Szolnoki MAV FC

51%

Winning margin

Dabas wins by 2+

26%

Szolnoki MAV FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dabas 1+ goals

82%

Dabas 2+ goals

52%

Dabas 3+ goals

25%

Szolnoki MAV FC 1+ goals

72%

Szolnoki MAV FC 2+ goals

36%

Szolnoki MAV FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dabas (draw refunded)

64%

Szolnoki MAV FC (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dabas at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.69 · 45 matches

Szolnoki MAV FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dabas attack 1.18 + Szolnoki MAV FC defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.74

Szolnoki MAV FC attack 0.83 + Dabas defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dabas scores more

49%

level

24%

Szolnoki MAV FC scores more

28%

Dabas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dabas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff