Szentlőrinc SE 3–0 Mohácsi TE: Result & Stats

Szentlőrinc SE

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mohácsi TE

11/12/2023

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 15Szentlőrinci Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Szentlőrinc SE77%

×Draw15%

Mohácsi TE8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Szentlőrinc SEExpected goals in this matchMohácsi TE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

0.70

Szentlőrinc SE

2.56

Mohácsi TE

0.70

Szentlőrinc SE creates 266% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

3.13

creates per match

0.73

0.67

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Szentlőrinc SE

3.13

Mohácsi TE

0.73

allows per match

Szentlőrinc SE

0.67

Mohácsi TE

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Szentlőrinc SE+0.00on par

Mohácsi TE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szentlőrinc SE ↓

Mohácsi TE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–17%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Szentlőrinc SE or draw

92%

Szentlőrinc SE or Mohácsi TE

85%

Draw or Mohácsi TE

23%

Winning margin

Szentlőrinc SE wins by 2+

55%

Mohácsi TE wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Szentlőrinc SE 1+ goals

92%

Szentlőrinc SE 2+ goals

72%

Szentlőrinc SE 3+ goals

46%

Mohácsi TE 1+ goals

50%

Mohácsi TE 2+ goals

16%

Mohácsi TE 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Szentlőrinc SE (draw refunded)

90%

Mohácsi TE (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szentlőrinc SE at home — creates 3.13, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Mohácsi TE away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szentlőrinc SE attack 3.13 + Mohácsi TE defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.56

Mohácsi TE attack 0.73 + Szentlőrinc SE defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Szentlőrinc SE scores more

77%

level

15%

Mohácsi TE scores more

8%

Szentlőrinc SE at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Szentlőrinc SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff