Mohácsi TE 0–1 Szentlőrinc SE: Result & Stats

Mohácsi TE

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Szentlőrinc SE

5/26/2024

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 30Újvárosi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mohácsi TE21%

×Draw25%

Szentlőrinc SE54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mohácsi TEExpected goals in this matchSzentlőrinc SE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

1.60

Mohácsi TE

0.90

Szentlőrinc SE

1.60

Szentlőrinc SE creates 78% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.07

creates per match

2.07

1.13

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Mohácsi TE

1.07

Szentlőrinc SE

2.07

allows per match

Mohácsi TE

1.13

Szentlőrinc SE

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mohácsi TE+0.00on par

Szentlőrinc SE+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mohácsi TE ↓

Szentlőrinc SE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mohácsi TE or draw

46%

Mohácsi TE or Szentlőrinc SE

75%

Draw or Szentlőrinc SE

79%

Winning margin

Mohácsi TE wins by 2+

7%

Szentlőrinc SE wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Mohácsi TE 1+ goals

59%

Mohácsi TE 2+ goals

23%

Mohácsi TE 3+ goals

6%

Szentlőrinc SE 1+ goals

80%

Szentlőrinc SE 2+ goals

47%

Szentlőrinc SE 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Mohácsi TE (draw refunded)

28%

Szentlőrinc SE (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mohácsi TE at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Szentlőrinc SE away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mohácsi TE attack 1.07 + Szentlőrinc SE defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.90

Szentlőrinc SE attack 2.07 + Mohácsi TE defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mohácsi TE scores more

21%

level

25%

Szentlőrinc SE scores more

54%

Szentlőrinc SE at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Szentlőrinc SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff