Szentlőrinc SE 1–1 Kaposvar: Result & Stats

Szentlőrinc SE

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kaposvar

11/18/2023

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 16Szentlőrinci Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Szentlőrinc SE55%

×Draw21%

Kaposvar23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Szentlőrinc SEExpected goals in this matchKaposvar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.28

Szentlőrinc SE

2.07

Kaposvar

1.28

Szentlőrinc SE creates 62% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 83 away

3.13

creates per match

1.90

0.67

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Szentlőrinc SE

3.13

Kaposvar

1.90

allows per match

Szentlőrinc SE

0.67

Kaposvar

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Szentlőrinc SE+0.00on par

Kaposvar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szentlőrinc SE ↓

Kaposvar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Szentlőrinc SE or draw

77%

Szentlőrinc SE or Kaposvar

79%

Draw or Kaposvar

45%

Winning margin

Szentlőrinc SE wins by 2+

33%

Kaposvar wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Szentlőrinc SE 1+ goals

87%

Szentlőrinc SE 2+ goals

61%

Szentlőrinc SE 3+ goals

34%

Kaposvar 1+ goals

72%

Kaposvar 2+ goals

37%

Kaposvar 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Szentlőrinc SE (draw refunded)

70%

Kaposvar (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szentlőrinc SE at home — creates 3.13, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Kaposvar away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.01 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szentlőrinc SE attack 3.13 + Kaposvar defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 2.07

Kaposvar attack 1.90 + Szentlőrinc SE defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Szentlőrinc SE scores more

55%

level

21%

Kaposvar scores more

23%

Szentlőrinc SE at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Szentlőrinc SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff