Kaposvar 0–4 Szentlőrinc SE: Result & Stats

Kaposvar

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Szentlőrinc SE

7/30/2023

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 1Rákóczi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kaposvar30%

×Draw24%

Szentlőrinc SE46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KaposvarExpected goals in this matchSzentlőrinc SE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.65

Kaposvar

1.28

Szentlőrinc SE

1.65

Szentlőrinc SE creates 29% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 15 away

1.83

creates per match

2.07

1.23

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Kaposvar

1.83

Szentlőrinc SE

2.07

allows per match

Kaposvar

1.23

Szentlőrinc SE

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaposvar+0.00on par

Szentlőrinc SE+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaposvar ↓

Szentlőrinc SE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kaposvar or draw

54%

Kaposvar or Szentlőrinc SE

76%

Draw or Szentlőrinc SE

70%

Winning margin

Kaposvar wins by 2+

13%

Szentlőrinc SE wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Kaposvar 1+ goals

72%

Kaposvar 2+ goals

37%

Kaposvar 3+ goals

14%

Szentlőrinc SE 1+ goals

81%

Szentlőrinc SE 2+ goals

49%

Szentlőrinc SE 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Kaposvar (draw refunded)

39%

Szentlőrinc SE (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaposvar at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.23 · 83 matches

Szentlőrinc SE away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaposvar attack 1.83 + Szentlőrinc SE defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.28

Szentlőrinc SE attack 2.07 + Kaposvar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kaposvar scores more

30%

level

24%

Szentlőrinc SE scores more

46%

Szentlőrinc SE at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Szentlőrinc SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff