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Szentlőrinc SE vs Gárdony — NB III - Southwest 2019

Szentlőrinc SE
Szentlőrinc SE
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Gárdony
Gárdony
8/30/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 5Szentlőrinci Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Szentlőrinc SE78%
×Draw14%
Gárdony8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Szentlőrinc SE
2.74
Gárdony
0.78

Szentlőrinc SE creates 251% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 68 away

creates per match

Szentlőrinc SE
3.13
Gárdony
0.88

allows per match

Szentlőrinc SE
0.67
Gárdony
2.35

finishing

Szentlőrinc SE+0.00on par
Gárdony+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szentlőrinc SE ↓

Gárdony →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Szentlőrinc SE or draw
92%
Szentlőrinc SE or Gárdony
86%
Draw or Gárdony
22%

Winning margin

Szentlőrinc SE wins by 2+
57%
Gárdony wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Szentlőrinc SE 1+ goals
93%
Szentlőrinc SE 2+ goals
75%
Szentlőrinc SE 3+ goals
51%
Gárdony 1+ goals
54%
Gárdony 2+ goals
18%
Gárdony 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Szentlőrinc SE (draw refunded)
90%
Gárdony (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szentlőrinc SE at home — creates 3.13, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Gárdony away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szentlőrinc SE attack 3.13 + Gárdony defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.74

Gárdony attack 0.88 + Szentlőrinc SE defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Szentlőrinc SE scores more
78%
level
14%
Gárdony scores more
8%

Szentlőrinc SE at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Szentlőrinc SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Szentlőrinc SE vs Gárdony

Szentlőrinc SE beat Gárdony 3-2 in NB III - Southwest on August 30, 2023.

The match was played at Szentlőrinci Sportpálya in Szentlőrinc.