Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gárdony vs Szentlőrinc SE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Gárdony
Gárdony
FT
0 – 4
Szentlőrinc SE
Szentlőrinc SE
3/17/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 20Agárd Parkerdő Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gárdony22%
×Draw21%
Szentlőrinc SE57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gárdony
1.21
Szentlőrinc SE
2.05

Szentlőrinc SE creates 69% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 15 away

creates per match

Gárdony
1.69
Szentlőrinc SE
2.07

allows per match

Gárdony
2.04
Szentlőrinc SE
0.73

finishing

Gárdony+0.00on par
Szentlőrinc SE+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gárdony ↓

Szentlőrinc SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gárdony or draw
43%
Gárdony or Szentlőrinc SE
79%
Draw or Szentlőrinc SE
78%

Winning margin

Gárdony wins by 2+
9%
Szentlőrinc SE wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Gárdony 1+ goals
70%
Gárdony 2+ goals
34%
Gárdony 3+ goals
12%
Szentlőrinc SE 1+ goals
87%
Szentlőrinc SE 2+ goals
61%
Szentlőrinc SE 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Gárdony (draw refunded)
28%
Szentlőrinc SE (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gárdony at home — creates 1.69, concedes 2.04 · 68 matches

Szentlőrinc SE away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gárdony attack 1.69 + Szentlőrinc SE defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.21

Szentlőrinc SE attack 2.07 + Gárdony defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gárdony scores more
22%
level
21%
Szentlőrinc SE scores more
57%

Szentlőrinc SE at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Szentlőrinc SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gárdony vs Szentlőrinc SE

Szentlőrinc SE beat Gárdony 4-0 in NB III - Southwest on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Agárd Parkerdő Sportpálya in Gárdony.