Szentlőrinc SE 3–0 Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

Szentlőrinc SE

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

5/19/2024

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 29Szentlőrinci Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Szentlőrinc SE83%

×Draw12%

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Szentlőrinc SEExpected goals in this matchDunaújváros-Pálhalma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

0.70

Szentlőrinc SE

3.00

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

0.70

Szentlőrinc SE creates 329% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

3.13

creates per match

0.73

0.67

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Szentlőrinc SE

3.13

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

0.73

allows per match

Szentlőrinc SE

0.67

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Szentlőrinc SE+0.00on par

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szentlőrinc SE ↓

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Szentlőrinc SE or draw

94%

Szentlőrinc SE or Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

88%

Draw or Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

17%

Winning margin

Szentlőrinc SE wins by 2+

63%

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Szentlőrinc SE 1+ goals

95%

Szentlőrinc SE 2+ goals

79%

Szentlőrinc SE 3+ goals

56%

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 1+ goals

50%

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 2+ goals

16%

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Szentlőrinc SE (draw refunded)

93%

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szentlőrinc SE at home — creates 3.13, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szentlőrinc SE attack 3.13 + Dunaújváros-Pálhalma defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 3.00

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma attack 0.73 + Szentlőrinc SE defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Szentlőrinc SE scores more

83%

level

12%

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma scores more

6%

Szentlőrinc SE at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Szentlőrinc SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff