Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 1–1 Szentlőrinc SE

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Szentlőrinc SE

11/5/2023

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 14Dunaújvárosi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma17%

×Draw23%

Szentlőrinc SE59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunaújváros-PálhalmaExpected goals in this matchSzentlőrinc SE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

1.73

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

0.80

Szentlőrinc SE

1.73

Szentlőrinc SE creates 116% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

0.87

creates per match

2.07

1.40

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

0.87

Szentlőrinc SE

2.07

allows per match

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma

1.40

Szentlőrinc SE

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma+0.00on par

Szentlőrinc SE+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma ↓

Szentlőrinc SE →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–114%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma or draw

41%

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma or Szentlőrinc SE

77%

Draw or Szentlőrinc SE

83%

Winning margin

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma wins by 2+

5%

Szentlőrinc SE wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 1+ goals

55%

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 2+ goals

19%

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma 3+ goals

5%

Szentlőrinc SE 1+ goals

82%

Szentlőrinc SE 2+ goals

52%

Szentlőrinc SE 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma (draw refunded)

22%

Szentlőrinc SE (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Szentlőrinc SE away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma attack 0.87 + Szentlőrinc SE defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.80

Szentlőrinc SE attack 2.07 + Dunaújváros-Pálhalma defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Dunaújváros-Pálhalma scores more

17%

level

23%

Szentlőrinc SE scores more

59%

Szentlőrinc SE at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Szentlőrinc SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff