Szekszárd 1–3 Ferencváros II: Result & Stats

Szekszárd

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Ferencváros II

11/18/2023

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 16Szekszárdi Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Szekszárd32%

×Draw24%

Ferencváros II44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SzekszárdExpected goals in this matchFerencváros II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.65

Szekszárd

1.37

Ferencváros II

1.65

Ferencváros II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

1.27

creates per match

1.76

1.53

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Szekszárd

1.27

Ferencváros II

1.76

allows per match

Szekszárd

1.53

Ferencváros II

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Szekszárd+0.00on par

Ferencváros II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szekszárd ↓

Ferencváros II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Szekszárd or draw

56%

Szekszárd or Ferencváros II

76%

Draw or Ferencváros II

68%

Winning margin

Szekszárd wins by 2+

14%

Ferencváros II wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Szekszárd 1+ goals

75%

Szekszárd 2+ goals

40%

Szekszárd 3+ goals

16%

Ferencváros II 1+ goals

81%

Ferencváros II 2+ goals

49%

Ferencváros II 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Szekszárd (draw refunded)

42%

Ferencváros II (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szekszárd at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

Ferencváros II away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szekszárd attack 1.27 + Ferencváros II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.37

Ferencváros II attack 1.76 + Szekszárd defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Szekszárd scores more

32%

level

24%

Ferencváros II scores more

44%

Ferencváros II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ferencváros II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff