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Ferencváros II vs Szekszárd — NB III - Southwest 2019

Ferencváros II
Ferencváros II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Szekszárd
Szekszárd
10/26/2025NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 13FTC Utánpótlás Centrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ferencváros II68%
×Draw18%
Szekszárd14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferencváros II
2.38
Szekszárd
0.97

Ferencváros II creates 145% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Ferencváros II
2.27
Szekszárd
1.04

allows per match

Ferencváros II
0.89
Szekszárd
2.49

finishing

Ferencváros II+0.00on par
Szekszárd+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferencváros II ↓

Szekszárd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ferencváros II or draw
86%
Ferencváros II or Szekszárd
82%
Draw or Szekszárd
32%

Winning margin

Ferencváros II wins by 2+
46%
Szekszárd wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ferencváros II 1+ goals
91%
Ferencváros II 2+ goals
68%
Ferencváros II 3+ goals
42%
Szekszárd 1+ goals
62%
Szekszárd 2+ goals
25%
Szekszárd 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ferencváros II (draw refunded)
83%
Szekszárd (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferencváros II at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Szekszárd away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.49 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferencváros II attack 2.27 + Szekszárd defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.38

Szekszárd attack 1.04 + Ferencváros II defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Ferencváros II scores more
68%
level
18%
Szekszárd scores more
14%

Ferencváros II at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ferencváros II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Ferencváros II 3–0 Szekszárd

Ferencváros II beat Szekszárd 3-0 in NB III - Southwest on October 26, 2025.

The match was played at FTC Utánpótlás Centrum in Budapest.