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Szeged-Csanád II vs Pénzügyőr — NB III - Southeast 2023

Szeged-Csanád II
Szeged-Csanád II
FT
3 – 1
Pénzügyőr
Pénzügyőr
3/9/2024NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 19Szent Gellért Fórum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Szeged-Csanád II45%
×Draw24%
Pénzügyőr31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Szeged-Csanád II
1.65
Pénzügyőr
1.33

Szeged-Csanád II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 30 away

creates per match

Szeged-Csanád II
1.53
Pénzügyőr
1.20

allows per match

Szeged-Csanád II
1.47
Pénzügyőr
1.77

finishing

Szeged-Csanád II+0.00on par
Pénzügyőr+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szeged-Csanád II ↓

Pénzügyőr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Szeged-Csanád II or draw
69%
Szeged-Csanád II or Pénzügyőr
76%
Draw or Pénzügyőr
55%

Winning margin

Szeged-Csanád II wins by 2+
23%
Pénzügyőr wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Szeged-Csanád II 1+ goals
81%
Szeged-Csanád II 2+ goals
49%
Szeged-Csanád II 3+ goals
23%
Pénzügyőr 1+ goals
74%
Pénzügyőr 2+ goals
38%
Pénzügyőr 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Szeged-Csanád II (draw refunded)
59%
Pénzügyőr (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szeged-Csanád II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Pénzügyőr away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szeged-Csanád II attack 1.53 + Pénzügyőr defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.65

Pénzügyőr attack 1.20 + Szeged-Csanád II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Szeged-Csanád II scores more
45%
level
24%
Pénzügyőr scores more
31%

Szeged-Csanád II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Szeged-Csanád II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Szeged-Csanád II vs Pénzügyőr

Szeged-Csanád II beat Pénzügyőr 3-1 in NB III - Southeast on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Szent Gellért Fórum in Szeged.