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Pénzügyőr vs Szeged-Csanád II — NB III - Southeast 2023

Pénzügyőr
Pénzügyőr
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Szeged-Csanád II
Szeged-Csanád II
8/19/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 4Vasas Pasaréti úti Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pénzügyőr36%
×Draw26%
Szeged-Csanád II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pénzügyőr
1.29
Szeged-Csanád II
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 32 away

creates per match

Pénzügyőr
0.87
Szeged-Csanád II
1.09

allows per match

Pénzügyőr
1.57
Szeged-Csanád II
1.72

finishing

Pénzügyőr+0.00on par
Szeged-Csanád II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pénzügyőr ↓

Szeged-Csanád II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pénzügyőr or draw
62%
Pénzügyőr or Szeged-Csanád II
74%
Draw or Szeged-Csanád II
64%

Winning margin

Pénzügyőr wins by 2+
16%
Szeged-Csanád II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Pénzügyőr 1+ goals
72%
Pénzügyőr 2+ goals
37%
Pénzügyőr 3+ goals
14%
Szeged-Csanád II 1+ goals
74%
Szeged-Csanád II 2+ goals
38%
Szeged-Csanád II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Pénzügyőr (draw refunded)
49%
Szeged-Csanád II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pénzügyőr at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.57 · 30 matches

Szeged-Csanád II away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pénzügyőr attack 0.87 + Szeged-Csanád II defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.29

Szeged-Csanád II attack 1.09 + Pénzügyőr defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pénzügyőr scores more
36%
level
26%
Szeged-Csanád II scores more
38%

Szeged-Csanád II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Szeged-Csanád II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pénzügyőr vs Szeged-Csanád II

Pénzügyőr beat Szeged-Csanád II 3-1 in NB III - Southeast on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Vasas Pasaréti úti Sporttelep in Budapest.