Szeged-Csanád II 1–1 Hódmezővásárhely

Szeged-Csanád II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hódmezővásárhely

11/25/2023

NB III - Southeast · Southeast - 17Szent Gellért Fórum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Szeged-Csanád II38%

×Draw25%

Hódmezővásárhely37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Szeged-Csanád IIExpected goals in this matchHódmezővásárhely

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.42

Szeged-Csanád II

1.45

Hódmezővásárhely

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 45 away

1.53

creates per match

1.36

1.47

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Szeged-Csanád II

1.53

Hódmezővásárhely

1.36

allows per match

Szeged-Csanád II

1.47

Hódmezővásárhely

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Szeged-Csanád II+0.00on par

Hódmezővásárhely+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szeged-Csanád II ↓

Hódmezővásárhely →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Szeged-Csanád II or draw

63%

Szeged-Csanád II or Hódmezővásárhely

75%

Draw or Hódmezővásárhely

62%

Winning margin

Szeged-Csanád II wins by 2+

18%

Hódmezővásárhely wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Szeged-Csanád II 1+ goals

77%

Szeged-Csanád II 2+ goals

42%

Szeged-Csanád II 3+ goals

18%

Hódmezővásárhely 1+ goals

76%

Hódmezővásárhely 2+ goals

41%

Hódmezővásárhely 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Szeged-Csanád II (draw refunded)

51%

Hódmezővásárhely (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szeged-Csanád II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Hódmezővásárhely away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szeged-Csanád II attack 1.53 + Hódmezővásárhely defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.45

Hódmezővásárhely attack 1.36 + Szeged-Csanád II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Szeged-Csanád II scores more

38%

level

25%

Hódmezővásárhely scores more

37%

Szeged-Csanád II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Szeged-Csanád II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff