Hódmezővásárhely 1–0 Szeged-Csanád II

Hódmezővásárhely

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Szeged-Csanád II

8/2/2023

NB III - Southeast · Southeast - 2Hódmezővásárhelyi Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Hódmezővásárhely49%

×Draw24%

Szeged-Csanád II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HódmezővásárhelyExpected goals in this matchSzeged-Csanád II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.20

Hódmezővásárhely

1.71

Szeged-Csanád II

1.20

Hódmezővásárhely creates 43% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 32 away

1.69

creates per match

1.09

1.31

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Hódmezővásárhely

1.69

Szeged-Csanád II

1.09

allows per match

Hódmezővásárhely

1.31

Szeged-Csanád II

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hódmezővásárhely+0.00on par

Szeged-Csanád II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hódmezővásárhely ↓

Szeged-Csanád II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Hódmezővásárhely or draw

73%

Hódmezővásárhely or Szeged-Csanád II

76%

Draw or Szeged-Csanád II

51%

Winning margin

Hódmezővásárhely wins by 2+

26%

Szeged-Csanád II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hódmezővásárhely 1+ goals

82%

Hódmezővásárhely 2+ goals

51%

Hódmezővásárhely 3+ goals

24%

Szeged-Csanád II 1+ goals

70%

Szeged-Csanád II 2+ goals

34%

Szeged-Csanád II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hódmezővásárhely (draw refunded)

65%

Szeged-Csanád II (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hódmezővásárhely at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.31 · 45 matches

Szeged-Csanád II away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hódmezővásárhely attack 1.69 + Szeged-Csanád II defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.71

Szeged-Csanád II attack 1.09 + Hódmezővásárhely defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hódmezővásárhely scores more

49%

level

24%

Szeged-Csanád II scores more

27%

Hódmezővásárhely at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hódmezővásárhely will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff