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Szeged-Csanád II vs Cegledi VSE — NB III - Southeast 2023

Szeged-Csanád II
Szeged-Csanád II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cegledi VSE
Cegledi VSE
8/13/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 3Szent Gellért Fórum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Szeged-Csanád II61%
×Draw19%
Cegledi VSE20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Szeged-Csanád II
2.37
Cegledi VSE
1.30

Szeged-Csanád II creates 82% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 15 away

creates per match

Szeged-Csanád II
1.53
Cegledi VSE
1.13

allows per match

Szeged-Csanád II
1.47
Cegledi VSE
3.20

finishing

Szeged-Csanád II+0.00on par
Cegledi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szeged-Csanád II ↓

Cegledi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Szeged-Csanád II or draw
80%
Szeged-Csanád II or Cegledi VSE
81%
Draw or Cegledi VSE
39%

Winning margin

Szeged-Csanád II wins by 2+
39%
Cegledi VSE wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Szeged-Csanád II 1+ goals
91%
Szeged-Csanád II 2+ goals
68%
Szeged-Csanád II 3+ goals
42%
Cegledi VSE 1+ goals
73%
Cegledi VSE 2+ goals
37%
Cegledi VSE 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Szeged-Csanád II (draw refunded)
75%
Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szeged-Csanád II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Cegledi VSE away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szeged-Csanád II attack 1.53 + Cegledi VSE defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.37

Cegledi VSE attack 1.13 + Szeged-Csanád II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Szeged-Csanád II scores more
61%
level
19%
Cegledi VSE scores more
20%

Szeged-Csanád II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Szeged-Csanád II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Szeged-Csanád II vs Cegledi VSE

Cegledi VSE beat Szeged-Csanád II 1-0 in NB III - Southeast on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Szent Gellért Fórum in Szeged.