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Cegledi VSE vs Szeged-Csanád II — NB III - Southeast 2023

Cegledi VSE
Cegledi VSE
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Szeged-Csanád II
Szeged-Csanád II
3/3/2024NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 18Malomtó széli sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cegledi VSE20%
×Draw20%
Szeged-Csanád II60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cegledi VSE
1.26
Szeged-Csanád II
2.28

Szeged-Csanád II creates 81% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 32 away

creates per match

Cegledi VSE
0.80
Szeged-Csanád II
1.09

allows per match

Cegledi VSE
3.47
Szeged-Csanád II
1.72

finishing

Cegledi VSE+0.00on par
Szeged-Csanád II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cegledi VSE ↓

Szeged-Csanád II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Cegledi VSE or draw
40%
Cegledi VSE or Szeged-Csanád II
80%
Draw or Szeged-Csanád II
80%

Winning margin

Cegledi VSE wins by 2+
8%
Szeged-Csanád II wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Cegledi VSE 1+ goals
72%
Cegledi VSE 2+ goals
36%
Cegledi VSE 3+ goals
13%
Szeged-Csanád II 1+ goals
90%
Szeged-Csanád II 2+ goals
66%
Szeged-Csanád II 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)
25%
Szeged-Csanád II (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cegledi VSE at home — creates 0.80, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

Szeged-Csanád II away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cegledi VSE attack 0.80 + Szeged-Csanád II defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.26

Szeged-Csanád II attack 1.09 + Cegledi VSE defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Cegledi VSE scores more
20%
level
20%
Szeged-Csanád II scores more
60%

Szeged-Csanád II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Szeged-Csanád II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cegledi VSE vs Szeged-Csanád II

Szeged-Csanád II beat Cegledi VSE 4-0 in NB III - Southeast on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Malomtó széli sporttelep in Cegléd.