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Syunik vs Ararat II — First League 2019

Syunik
Syunik
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ararat II
Ararat II
9/17/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 5Gandzasar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Syunik55%
×Draw21%
Ararat II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Syunik
2.05
Ararat II
1.27

Syunik creates 61% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 83 away

creates per match

Syunik
2.26
Ararat II
1.55

allows per match

Syunik
0.98
Ararat II
1.84

finishing

Syunik+0.00on par
Ararat II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syunik ↓

Ararat II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Syunik or draw
77%
Syunik or Ararat II
79%
Draw or Ararat II
45%

Winning margin

Syunik wins by 2+
33%
Ararat II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Syunik 1+ goals
87%
Syunik 2+ goals
61%
Syunik 3+ goals
33%
Ararat II 1+ goals
72%
Ararat II 2+ goals
36%
Ararat II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Syunik (draw refunded)
70%
Ararat II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syunik at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.98 · 54 matches

Ararat II away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.84 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syunik attack 2.26 + Ararat II defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.05

Ararat II attack 1.55 + Syunik defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Syunik scores more
55%
level
21%
Ararat II scores more
23%

Syunik at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Syunik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Syunik vs Ararat II

Syunik beat Ararat II 1-0 in First League on September 17, 2024.

The match was played at Gandzasar Stadium in Kapan.