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Ararat II vs Syunik — First League 2019

Ararat II
Ararat II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Syunik
Syunik
4/1/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 18Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Ararat II30%
×Draw22%
Syunik48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ararat II
1.56
Syunik
2.01

Syunik creates 29% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 57 away

creates per match

Ararat II
2.02
Syunik
2.14

allows per match

Ararat II
1.88
Syunik
1.11

finishing

Ararat II+0.00on par
Syunik+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ararat II ↓

Syunik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Ararat II or draw
52%
Ararat II or Syunik
78%
Draw or Syunik
70%

Winning margin

Ararat II wins by 2+
14%
Syunik wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Ararat II 1+ goals
79%
Ararat II 2+ goals
46%
Ararat II 3+ goals
21%
Syunik 1+ goals
87%
Syunik 2+ goals
59%
Syunik 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Ararat II (draw refunded)
39%
Syunik (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ararat II at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.88 · 86 matches

Syunik away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ararat II attack 2.02 + Syunik defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.56

Syunik attack 2.14 + Ararat II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ararat II scores more
30%
level
22%
Syunik scores more
48%

Syunik at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Syunik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Ararat II 1–3 Syunik

Syunik beat Ararat II 3-1 in First League on April 1, 2025.

The match was played at Sports Complex Dzoraghbyur in Dzoraghbyur.