Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Syunik vs Alashkert II — First League 2019

Syunik
Syunik
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Alashkert II
Alashkert II
8/6/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Gandzasar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Syunik64%
×Draw18%
Alashkert II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Syunik
2.42
Alashkert II
1.19

Syunik creates 103% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 64 away

creates per match

Syunik
2.26
Alashkert II
1.39

allows per match

Syunik
0.98
Alashkert II
2.58

finishing

Syunik+0.00on par
Alashkert II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syunik ↓

Alashkert II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Syunik or draw
83%
Syunik or Alashkert II
82%
Draw or Alashkert II
36%

Winning margin

Syunik wins by 2+
42%
Alashkert II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Syunik 1+ goals
91%
Syunik 2+ goals
69%
Syunik 3+ goals
43%
Alashkert II 1+ goals
70%
Alashkert II 2+ goals
33%
Alashkert II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Syunik (draw refunded)
79%
Alashkert II (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syunik at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.98 · 54 matches

Alashkert II away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.58 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syunik attack 2.26 + Alashkert II defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.42

Alashkert II attack 1.39 + Syunik defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Syunik scores more
64%
level
18%
Alashkert II scores more
17%

Syunik at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Syunik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Syunik vs Alashkert II

Syunik beat Alashkert II 5-1 in First League on August 6, 2023.

The match was played at Gandzasar Stadium in Kapan.