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Alashkert II vs Syunik — First League 2019

Alashkert II
Alashkert II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Syunik
Syunik
12/4/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 17Kasakhi Marzik Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Alashkert II23%
×Draw20%
Syunik57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alashkert II
1.37
Syunik
2.24

Syunik creates 64% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 57 away

creates per match

Alashkert II
1.63
Syunik
2.14

allows per match

Alashkert II
2.34
Syunik
1.11

finishing

Alashkert II+0.00on par
Syunik+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alashkert II ↓

Syunik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Alashkert II or draw
43%
Alashkert II or Syunik
80%
Draw or Syunik
77%

Winning margin

Alashkert II wins by 2+
10%
Syunik wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Alashkert II 1+ goals
75%
Alashkert II 2+ goals
40%
Alashkert II 3+ goals
16%
Syunik 1+ goals
89%
Syunik 2+ goals
65%
Syunik 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Alashkert II (draw refunded)
29%
Syunik (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alashkert II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.34 · 62 matches

Syunik away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alashkert II attack 1.63 + Syunik defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.37

Syunik attack 2.14 + Alashkert II defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Alashkert II scores more
23%
level
20%
Syunik scores more
57%

Syunik at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Syunik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alashkert II vs Syunik

Syunik beat Alashkert II 2-0 in First League on December 4, 2023.

The match was played at Kasakhi Marzik Stadium in Ashtarak.