Syrianska FC 4–4 Norrby IF: Result & Stats

Syrianska FC

FT

4 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Norrby IF

8/17/2019

Superettan · Round 20Södertälje Fotbollsarena (Södertälje)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Syrianska FC32%

×Draw25%

Norrby IF43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Syrianska FCExpected goals in this matchNorrby IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.56

Syrianska FC

1.31

Norrby IF

1.56

Norrby IF creates 19% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 84 away

1.07

creates per match

1.12

2.00

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Syrianska FC

1.07

Norrby IF

1.12

allows per match

Syrianska FC

2.00

Norrby IF

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Norrby IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syrianska FC ↓

Norrby IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Syrianska FC or draw

57%

Syrianska FC or Norrby IF

75%

Draw or Norrby IF

68%

Winning margin

Syrianska FC wins by 2+

14%

Norrby IF wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Syrianska FC 1+ goals

73%

Syrianska FC 2+ goals

38%

Syrianska FC 3+ goals

14%

Norrby IF 1+ goals

79%

Norrby IF 2+ goals

46%

Norrby IF 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)

43%

Norrby IF (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syrianska FC at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Norrby IF away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.56 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syrianska FC attack 1.07 + Norrby IF defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Norrby IF attack 1.12 + Syrianska FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Syrianska FC scores more

32%

level

25%

Norrby IF scores more

43%

Norrby IF at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Norrby IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff