Norrby IF 3–2 Syrianska FC: Result & Stats

Norrby IF

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Syrianska FC

6/24/2019

Superettan · Round 14Borås Arena (Borås)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Norrby IF52%

×Draw24%

Syrianska FC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Norrby IFExpected goals in this matchSyrianska FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.08

Norrby IF

1.69

Syrianska FC

1.08

Norrby IF creates 56% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 15 away

1.38

creates per match

0.87

1.29

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Norrby IF

1.38

Syrianska FC

0.87

allows per match

Norrby IF

1.29

Syrianska FC

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norrby IF+0.00on par

Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norrby IF ↓

Syrianska FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Norrby IF or draw

76%

Norrby IF or Syrianska FC

76%

Draw or Syrianska FC

48%

Winning margin

Norrby IF wins by 2+

28%

Syrianska FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Norrby IF 1+ goals

82%

Norrby IF 2+ goals

50%

Norrby IF 3+ goals

24%

Syrianska FC 1+ goals

66%

Syrianska FC 2+ goals

29%

Syrianska FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Norrby IF (draw refunded)

68%

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norrby IF at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 82 matches

Syrianska FC away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norrby IF attack 1.38 + Syrianska FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Syrianska FC attack 0.87 + Norrby IF defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Norrby IF scores more

52%

level

24%

Syrianska FC scores more

24%

Norrby IF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Norrby IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff