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Syrianska FC vs Eskilstuna City — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Syrianska FC
Syrianska FC
FT
5 – 1
Eskilstuna City
Eskilstuna City
6/19/2021Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 15Södertälje Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Syrianska FC54%
×Draw22%
Eskilstuna City24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Syrianska FC
1.94
Eskilstuna City
1.22

Syrianska FC creates 59% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 14 away

creates per match

Syrianska FC
1.82
Eskilstuna City
0.93

allows per match

Syrianska FC
1.51
Eskilstuna City
2.07

finishing

Syrianska FC+0.00on par
Eskilstuna City+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syrianska FC ↓

Eskilstuna City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Syrianska FC or draw
76%
Syrianska FC or Eskilstuna City
78%
Draw or Eskilstuna City
46%

Winning margin

Syrianska FC wins by 2+
31%
Eskilstuna City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Syrianska FC 1+ goals
86%
Syrianska FC 2+ goals
58%
Syrianska FC 3+ goals
30%
Eskilstuna City 1+ goals
70%
Eskilstuna City 2+ goals
34%
Eskilstuna City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)
69%
Eskilstuna City (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syrianska FC at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.51 · 73 matches

Eskilstuna City away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syrianska FC attack 1.82 + Eskilstuna City defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.94

Eskilstuna City attack 0.93 + Syrianska FC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Syrianska FC scores more
54%
level
22%
Eskilstuna City scores more
24%

Syrianska FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Syrianska FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Svealand: Syrianska FC 5–1 Eskilstuna City

Syrianska FC beat Eskilstuna City 5-1 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on June 19, 2021.

The match was played at Södertälje Fotbollsarena in Södertälje.