Eskilstuna City 2–3 Syrianska FC: Result & Stats

Eskilstuna City

FT

2 – 3

Syrianska FC

6/27/2021

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 16Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Eskilstuna City37%

×Draw22%

Syrianska FC41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eskilstuna CityExpected goals in this matchSyrianska FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.83

Eskilstuna City

1.75

Syrianska FC

1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 73 away

1.64

creates per match

1.73

1.93

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Eskilstuna City

1.64

Syrianska FC

1.73

allows per match

Eskilstuna City

1.93

Syrianska FC

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eskilstuna City+0.00on par

Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eskilstuna City ↓

Syrianska FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Eskilstuna City or draw

59%

Eskilstuna City or Syrianska FC

78%

Draw or Syrianska FC

63%

Winning margin

Eskilstuna City wins by 2+

19%

Syrianska FC wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Eskilstuna City 1+ goals

83%

Eskilstuna City 2+ goals

52%

Eskilstuna City 3+ goals

25%

Syrianska FC 1+ goals

84%

Syrianska FC 2+ goals

54%

Syrianska FC 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Eskilstuna City (draw refunded)

48%

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eskilstuna City at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

Syrianska FC away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.86 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eskilstuna City attack 1.64 + Syrianska FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.75

Syrianska FC attack 1.73 + Eskilstuna City defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Eskilstuna City scores more

37%

level

22%

Syrianska FC scores more

41%

Syrianska FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Syrianska FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff